A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
